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The NDIS Is Changing: What Has Been Announced, Key Timelines, and What It Means for Participants Now

Lion and Mouse > News & Insights > Disability > The NDIS Is Changing: What Has Been Announced, Key Timelines, and What It Means for Participants Now
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The Australian Government announced the most significant changes to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) since it began. These reforms are linked to the 2026 Federal Budget and were outlined by the Minister for Health and the NDIS in public statements and a National Press Club address.

If you are an NDIS participant, family member, or carer, you may be wondering what this means for you – and when changes will actually take effect.

This article explains what has been announced, when changes are expected, and what (if anything) participants need to do right now.

 

Why Is the NDIS Changing?

The Government has stated that the NDIS has grown beyond its original design and is now one of the fastest‑growing areas of government spending. Without reform, projected costs were forecast to exceed $70 billion per year by around 2030, with participant numbers growing to well over 900,000.

The reforms aim to:
  • Slow overall growth of the scheme
  • Return the NDIS to its focus on people with permanent and significant disability
  • Improve consistency and integrity across planning and provider markets

What Has Been Announced?

 

1. Changes to Eligibility (Not Immediate)
The Government has announced that it intends to move away from reliance on diagnosis‑based access lists and toward standardised assessments of functional capacity. These assessments would focus on how disability impacts day‑to‑day living, rather than diagnosis alone.

The detail of these eligibility rules is not yet finalised, and legislation is expected to be introduced later in 2026.

2. A Reduction in Participant Numbers Over Time
Current modelling released by the Government indicates:
  • Around 760,000 people are currently on the NDIS
  • Under previous settings, numbers were projected to grow beyond 900,000
  • Under the proposed reforms, participant numbers may reduce to around 600,000 by the end of the decade

This change is expected to occur gradually, mainly through tighter access for new applicants and planned reassessment processes in future years.

3. Reassessment of Existing Participants (From Around 2028)
The Government has confirmed that an objective reassessment tool is intended to be developed for current NDIS participants. This is expected to be:
  • Introduced around 2028
  • Applied progressively as plans come up for renewal
  • Aligned to the revised eligibility framework

There is no mass reassessment happening now, and no immediate change to existing plans as a result of this announcement.

4. New Planning Framework and I‑CAN Assessment
From mid‑2026, the NDIS will begin rolling out a new planning framework, including use of the I‑CAN (Instrument for Classification and Assessment of Support Needs) assessment.
I‑CAN is:
  • A structured support‑needs assessment
  • Not a medical or diagnostic test
  • Conducted through a guided interview focused on everyday support needs
The rollout is staged over multiple years, and current planning processes will continue in parallel during this transition.
5. Changes to Average Plan Spending
The Government has announced a target to reduce the average annual NDIS plan cost from around $31,000 to approximately $26,000, returning to 2023 levels over time.
This is a scheme‑wide target, not an automatic cut to every individual plan.
Social and community participation supports have been identified as a key focus for cost control, with changes expected to begin from late 2026.
6. Stronger Provider Rules and Payments Changes
The reforms also include:
  • Expansion of mandatory registration for higher‑risk supports
  • A new digital payment system to improve oversight and reduce fraud
  • Reduced spending on third‑party intermediaries such as plan managers
These changes are primarily aimed at the provider market but may affect how services are delivered over time.
What Does This Mean for Participants Right Now?
✅ Your current plan does not change immediately
  • Existing plans remain in place until their end date
  • No immediate reassessments or removals from the NDIS are occurring
✅ You do not need to reapply or take action today
  • Eligibility changes and reassessments are future reforms
  • Details are still being developed and consulted on
⚠️ Some participants may notice changes first in:
  • How planning conversations are structured over time
  • Scrutiny of social and community participation spending
  • Provider registration and service delivery arrangements

 

 

What Is Still Unclear?
As of April 2026, the following are not yet settled:
  • The final design of new eligibility tests
  • How functional capacity assessments will be applied in practice
  • How transitional supports outside the NDIS will be funded and delivered
These details will be clarified through legislation, consultation, and staged implementation over the next several years.
In Summary
  • The NDIS is undergoing major reform, but most changes are not immediate
  • Current participants keep their plans for now
  • Eligibility and reassessment changes are expected from 2028 onward
  • Planning and provider systems will shift gradually between 2026 and 2030
For participants and families, the most important thing right now is to stay informed, not alarmed. Further guidance will be provided as legislation and implementation details are finalised.

 

This article is based on public announcements and information available as at late April 2026.
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